Strong headwinds, including heightened geopolitical tensions, a major energy market disruption, surging inflation in OECD countries and aggressive interest rate hikes, are bearing down on the global economy and appear likely to end the current economic expansion cycle.

While robust consumer balance sheets, steady service and manufacturing sector Purchasing Manager Indices (PMI) and solid business investment suggest the post-pandemic bounce back still has legs, these tailwinds are increasingly unsteady. CBRE therefore maintains its house view that a recession will likely occur in early 2023.

This CBRE Viewpoint explains why the broad array of challenges confronting the global economy have yet to cause a material deterioration in economic activity.